How DeedRock computes its numbers
Every figure on a lot card comes from a named source and a fixed, auditable model. This page explains each one - including what we do NOT know. When data is missing we say so; we never fill a gap with a guess.
1. Where the data comes from
County court auction feeds (49 of 67 Florida counties scanned daily online), county Property Appraiser records, the Florida DOR certified tax rolls, county official records (liens and deeds), FEMA flood maps (NFHL), HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rents, and Google Street View / aerial imagery. Right now the catalog tracks 1000 lots across 40 counties. Each dossier names the sources it used - a figure without a source does not ship. Every source here is public. What you pay for is the labor: checking one title by hand means 1-2 hours in the clerk's records - per lot. We run that check on every lot in the catalog, every night.
2. ROI scenarios and the walk-away number
For each lot we model three resale scenarios (best / likely / worst around the anchored market value), subtract acquisition costs, renovation, holding and selling costs, and any earlier-recorded debt we found. From that we derive the break-even bid and the WALK-AWAY NUMBER - the ceiling above which the likely scenario stops leaving an adequate margin. It is a calculation, not advice: the verdict tells you when the math itself is too thin to trust.
3. Comparable sales and confidence
Comps are real recorded sales, filtered for outliers (IQR), summarized by MEDIAN - never by average. Confidence is explicit: HIGH needs 8+ comps, MEDIUM 4+, below that the dossier says so and the verdict is downgraded. A comp-implied value that wildly diverges from the county appraiser's is rejected by a sanity band instead of silently repricing the lot.
4. Title check
We read county official records and sort each recorded document by RECORDING DATE against the claim being foreclosed: recorded earlier (top priority risk), recorded later, or needs review - with dollar amounts where the record carries them. That ordering is our model, not a legal opinion on what the sale will do; a Florida attorney or title company must confirm it. When claims exist but no amount is recorded, the card says UNKNOWN DEBT, never $0. Live in 13 counties today; expanding county-by-county - a lot without the automated check gets an honest 'order a title search' instruction instead.
5. Photos and the renovation estimate
Street imagery is scored by an AI vision pass (roof, siding, upkeep, vacancy signs), then a DETERMINISTIC rubric maps those tiers to dollars: condition multipliers, a roof-replacement add-on, structural-concern add-ons, a cap at 50% of market value. Low-confidence imagery is dampened; lots with no usable photo keep a blind percentage prior and the card says which basis was used.
6. Bid strategy
The predicted winning-bid range comes from 12,361 captured auction outcomes (2023-2026). Only counties with enough sales get a published median; thin history is stated, not extrapolated. Of captured outcomes, 38% went to third-party bidders - the auctions a subscriber can actually win.
7. The honesty rules
No number without a source. No data beats invented data - a gap is shown as a gap. Every AI-written narrative is grounded in the lot's own dossier, and translations are machine-checked so every dollar figure matches the English source exactly or the translation is discarded. DeedRock is a research tool, not legal or financial advice - the final decision and responsibility stay with the buyer.